Over the past two years, the price of cocoa has fluctuated sharply, culminating in a recent drop, yet the price of chocolate and finished products continues to rise. On the New York Commodity Exchange, after reaching a record high of over $11,000 per tonne at the end of 2024, cocoa stood at around $3,100 in March 2026. This represents a 65% drop from its peak, returning prices to their lowest levels in the last two and a half years. This downturn is the result of a combination of factors across the supply chain, but it has not yet been reflected in the prices of finished products.
In fact, the price consumers pay for cocoa-based products continues to rise: in Italy, for example, the price of Easter eggs has risen by 10% on a yearly basis. According to a recent survey conducted by UDICON (Union for the Defence of Consumers) and the Piepoli Institute, 85% of consumers reported price rises, with the average price per kilo of chocolate eggs rising from €70 to €77. The shrinkflation phenomenon is also emerging: many consumers report finding the same price but a reduction in product quantity. The rise in prices of finished products is part of a trend already evident in 2025, when Easter eggs saw a 40% price increase due to the surge in cocoa prices and the effects of the climate crisis along the supply chain.
The rise in retail prices persisted in 2026, despite the sharp decline in raw material prices, indicating a discrepancy between consumer price trends and market trends. This phenomenon is primarily explained by the misalignment between the price of cocoa on financial markets and the price of physical cocoa purchased by companies. As Andrea Mecozzi, a supply chain consultant with over twenty years’ experience in the Ivory Coast, points out, “The price discussed in the media is that of futures, i.e., contracts that set today the cost of a specific quantity of cocoa to be delivered in the future. It is therefore a price linked to projections. Companies, however, are still operating with raw materials purchased months ago at prices ranging between $7,000 and $8,000 per tonne, passing on the costs to the final products.”
How the geopolitical context influences cocoa prices
According to Mecozzi, any decline in retail prices is likely to occur only towards the end of 2026, in line with new harvests in the Ivory Coast and Ghana, the world’s two leading producers. Cocoa production follows distinct seasonal cycles: in West Africa, the harvest is concentrated between September and November, whereas in Latin America it takes place between March and May. The physical cocoa market is governed by different dynamics to the financial market. A closer connection between the two areas has only developed over the last fifteen years, since operators in the physical market also gained access to financial instruments. Before 2010, anyone operating directly within the supply chain could not participate in exchange trading.
Finished product prices are also likely to fall as a result of the decline in global demand for cocoa, down 27% in recent months. The contraction in demand has occurred both in the United States, as a result of President Trump’s tariff policies that have made imports more expensive, and in Europe, where 65% of global production is concentrated and where costs have risen in recent years due to higher energy prices. These increases could have an even greater impact following the outbreak of conflict in Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, already causing petrol prices to rise, as well as uncertainty surrounding the supply of fertilisers. “Cocoa is a raw material influenced by geopolitical dynamics, and situations of instability have a direct impact on prices,” Mecozzi emphasises. “In the final product made from cocoa, energy costs account for around 11% of the total: from transport by truck from the plantations to the ports, to the sea voyage, right through to the processing stages; given the structure of the supply chain, rises in energy and petrol costs will have an impact.”
A global and multi-sectorial supply chain
The cocoa sector is a global supply chain covering many countries, although production is concentrated in West Africa and South America. “In this market, raw cocoa from the Ivory Coast is exported to Europe but also to South America and Asia,” notes Mecozzi. “In Malaysia, for example, lower-quality, often smaller or damaged beans are purchased, then pressed to obtain cocoa butter and powder, which are subsequently resold on international markets. Brazil, despite being a producer, is not self-sufficient: it imports around 20% of its requirements from the Ivory Coast and then exports semi-finished or finished products.”
Adding to the complexity of the supply chain is the variety of uses for cocoa. Just a limited proportion, around 30%, is used for the production of chocolate bars. The remainder is used for other applications: from semi-finished products for ice cream to chocolate chips used in baked goods, to cocoa butter used in the cosmetics industry and additives for the confectionery sector. Such widespread use means that fluctuations in the price of the raw material are felt across various sectors.
The energy crisis transforms the cocoa industry
In the cocoa sector, however, the issue of cost hikes along the supply chain is beginning to be addressed in a more structured manner, in particular those linked to energy costs. The aim is to achieve the self-sufficiency in energy production required for processing the raw material. Up to now, in some producing countries – especially those in West Africa – energy access has been limited, characterised by high costs and intermittent availability. According to Mecozzi, however, this scenario is shifting: there is indeed a growing number of investments, including from Italian companies, in the local processing of cocoa beans.
In the Ivory Coast and Ghana, considerable potential for the development of renewable energy sources exists, ranging from hydroelectric and solar power to the utilisation of biomass. One of the emerging solutions is biochar, derived from the pyrolysis of cocoa processing waste, allowing energy to be recovered while simultaneously reducing emissions. On average, around 20% of a kilogram of fresh fruit yields dry beans, and the remaining portion can be used, alongside other biomass, to generate energy.
The impact of the climate crisis
Climate projections indicate that rising temperatures will prompt cocoa farmers to relocate their plantations to regions further from the equator and at higher altitudes, as well as requiring the adoption of new agricultural techniques. Practices such as agroecology and regenerative agriculture are, in fact, gaining ground. As Martino Bonato, manager of the Colombian consortium Okanta, which manages a plantation of around four thousand hectares, explains, this approach is a response to the new climatic conditions: “Extensive open-air plantations are more and more exposed to the risks associated with drought and extreme temperatures. There is therefore a shift towards an agroforestry model that creates a more humid microclimate conducive to the survival of cocoa. In addition, the integration of other crops allows for diversification of production, thus reducing dependence on a single yield.”
In short, the cocoa supply chain is going through a profound transformation, driven not only by geopolitical tensions but also by new opportunities related to the circular economy and agricultural innovation. Beyond the fluctuations in the price of the raw material – often the focus of media attention – a more structural change is underway: the sector is revising its production and environmental models to adjust to an increasingly complex landscape.
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