The year ahead opens against a backdrop of accumulated tensions, unresolved crises and shifting global balances. After years marked by pandemics, wars, inflationary shocks and accelerating technological change, uncertainty has become a structural condition rather than a temporary disruption. It is within this context that the Global Risks Report 2026, published by the World Economic Forum, takes shape, offering a snapshot of how experts perceive the most severe threats facing the global system today and over the coming decade.

Based on a survey of more than 1,300 policymakers, business leaders, academics and civil society representatives, the 21 edition of the report outlines a world that is increasingly difficult to read and even harder to govern. Half of respondents describe the global outlook over the next two years as “turbulent or stormy”, a share that rises to 57 per cent when the horizon is extended to ten years. Only around 1 per cent of experts expect a period of relative stability in either timeframe. The report frames this phase as an “Age of Competition”, characterised by declining trust, weakening multilateral cooperation and a growing tendency to manage global challenges through confrontation rather than coordination.

Geoeconomic confrontation, conflict and economic volatility

At the forefront of immediate concerns is geoeconomic rivalry. In the two-year risk outlook for 2026, “Geoeconomic confrontation” is identified as the most severe risk, selected by 18 per cent of respondents as the top threat likely to trigger a global crisis. This marks a notable rise compared with previous years and reflects escalating use of economic policy tools — such as tariffs, export controls, investment restrictions and weaponised supply chains — as instruments of international pressure.

Following geoeconomic confrontation, the risk of state-based armed conflict remains pronounced, with 14 per cent of experts highlighting the potential for interstate violence to destabilise regional and global systems. This continuation of geopolitical tension underscores lingering vulnerabilities stemming from prolonged crises and competition among major powers.

Economic instability itself is also rising sharply. In the short-term rankings, risks related to economic downturn and inflation have surged eight positions compared with last year, now positioned at #11 and #21 respectively, while the risk of an asset bubble burst increased seven positions to #18. Such movements suggest that financial volatility, debt sustainability concerns, and market stress are becoming more acute in a climate of economic bifurcation and competitive pressures.

Technological and societal risks are interwoven with these economic challenges. Misinformation and disinformation appear prominently in the two-year risk outlook, followed by cyber insecurity — both reflecting vulnerabilities in digital infrastructures and information ecosystems. Notably, adverse outcomes of artificial intelligence technologies, though ranked lower in the short term, climb dramatically in the long-term horizon, moving from #30 to #5 over a decade, indicating growing concern about AI’s societal and economic impacts.

Societal polarization also figures among near-term threats, reflecting pressures on democratic institutions and social cohesion under conditions of economic stress and political fragmentation. Inequality is highlighted as the most interconnected global risk for a second consecutive year, reinforcing its role in amplifying other risks, including economic downturn and social instability.

Environmental risks and long-term outlook

While short-term rankings show a relative deprioritisation of environmental hazards, with many environmental risks declining in severity and ranking, the long-term perspective tells a different story. Over the next decade, environmental risks dominate the most severe threats, with extreme weather events ranked as the top long-term risk, followed by biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse, and critical changes to Earth systems. Approximately three-quarters of respondents expect a turbulent or stormy environmental outlook over the next ten years — the most pessimistic category among all risk types.

This indicates that while economic and geopolitical competition captures immediate attention, environmental threats such as climate change, resource scarcity and ecosystem degradation remain existential challenges that are likely to intensify and drive systemic stress across societies and economies in the longer term.

The report also highlights how environmental risks interconnect with other domains. For example, infrastructure vulnerability — influenced by climate extremes — can exacerbate economic and social instability, while technological adaptation and resilience measures become crucial for managing both climate impacts and related risk factors.

A fragmented world and policy implications

A key structural transformation emerging from the report is the shift toward a multipolar or fragmented global order. Some 68 per cent of experts interviewed anticipate that the next decade will be characterised by competing regional norms and power blocs rather than a cohesive, rules-based international system. This reflects rising protectionism, strategic industrial policy, and greater governmental influence on critical supply chains — all symptomatic of an increasingly competitive global environment.

The retreat of multilateralism and the rise of geoeconomic confrontation pose significant challenges for policy-makers tasked with balancing immediate competitive pressures against the need for long-term cooperation on shared risks. The overlap between economic downturn, inequality, societal fragmentation and environmental degradation suggests that single-domain strategies are insufficient. Instead, holistic and coordinated approaches are crucial — integrating economic, technological and environmental policy frameworks to address the multifaceted nature of global risk.

For instance, economic policies aimed at stabilising markets must be complemented by social safety nets to mitigate inequality and social discontent. Similarly, technological governance frameworks are needed to manage misinformation and the consequences of AI, while environmental adaptation and mitigation efforts remain foundational for long-term resilience. Such integrative strategies are essential for sustaining economic development, technological innovation and environmental stability in an era defined by competition and uncertainty.

In other words, the Global Risks Report 2026 presents a stark assessment of how geoeconomic rivalry, conflict and systemic vulnerabilities are reshaping the global risk landscape. The prominence of economic confrontation and the fragmentation of global order underscore the imperative for collaborative risk management strategies. Yet, the enduring severity of environmental threats over the long term serves as a reminder that addressing climate and ecological challenges remains indispensable even as geopolitical tensions intensify. The report’s findings offer a critical foundation for decision-makers seeking to navigate an increasingly complex and interconnected world.

Cover: photo by Envato