Following months of delays and persistent political uncertainty, the European Commission is expected to present its proposal to revise the EU CO₂ standards for cars and vans on 16 December. The review targets the landmark 2035 rule that permits the sale of only vehicles with “zero CO₂ emissions”. Under current legislation, this threshold can be met not only by electric vehicles but also by hydrogen-powered models and synthetic-fuel cars, provided they use carbon-free energy sources. These provisions were introduced to ensure compliance pathways beyond battery electric technologies, while maintaining alignment with long-term climate ambitions set under the European Green Deal.

Tensions escalated on 12 December, when reports revealed an agreement between Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and EPP leader Manfred Weber. “The technology ban on combustion engines is off the table,” Weber told Bild, signalling a substantial shift in political alignment. This claim has sparked debate across Brussels, given the broad consensus that transport remains the largest source of CO₂ emissions in the EU, accounting for roughly one quarter of the bloc’s greenhouse gases according to the European Environment Agency.

Industry pressure has intensified in recent months, particularly from the German automotive lobby. Their objective is to dilute the 2035 target by reducing the requirement from 100% zero-emission sales to 90%. Environmental organisations argue that such a revision would significantly boost plug-in hybrid registrations, slowing the transition to fully decarbonised transport systems. Some internal draft discussions also point to a potential postponement of the cutoff year to 2040, a position publicly supported by senior figures within the European People’s Party.

Political negotiations gain momentum

Parallel to internal Commission discussions, at least seven member states have formally requested a revision of the 2035 ban. In two letters obtained by Euronews, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Poland and Slovakia argue that it is “imperative” for the EU to allow hybrid vehicle sales beyond 2035. These governments contend that strict zero-emission rules could undermine the competitiveness of the European automotive sector, particularly in markets where electrification remains constrained by economic or infrastructural gaps.

The signatories defend the principle of technological neutrality, advocating for a broader regulatory framework that includes hybrid electric vehicles, hydrogen-powered cars and biofuel-based solutions. They also emphasise the structural challenges still facing Europe’s mobility transition, notably the insufficient availability of charging networks and hydrogen refuelling stations. According to the letters, accelerating infrastructure deployment must become a central focus of the Commission’s upcoming legislative package.

A decisive moment for Europe’s automotive transition

As the Commission prepares its final proposal, the debate highlights a broader tension between environmental commitments and industrial policy. The original 2035 zero-emission target was designed to drive long-term investment, reduce fossil fuel dependency and align the transport sector with the EU’s 2050 climate neutrality objective. However, the mounting political resistance suggests that Europe’s path to decarbonised mobility may become more fragmented, with differentiated national strategies emerging across the single market.

With the formal legislative process set to begin in the coming months, the revised CO₂ standards will define the pace of Europe’s automotive transition for the next decade. The outcome will depend on whether policymakers prioritise regulatory flexibility, technological neutrality or a strict adherence to climate timelines supported by scientific evidence and green groups.

Cover: Manfred Weber and Ursula von der Leyen © European Union, 2024