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Global warming may be ignored, like many governments have decided to do, but it will not stop: it follows its own course, leading to a steady rise in average temperatures and an increasing frequency of extreme weather events. One of the many effects is the impact on forests. Rising temperatures create stressful conditions for many tree species, often unsuited to prolonged periods of intense heat. At the same time, there is a reduction in annual rainfall, especially at crucial times for plant growth. Not only is the amount of rain changing, but so is its distribution: shorter, more intense events reduce the soil’s ability to retain water, leading to erosion and limiting water uptake by the roots.

Adding to this scenario is the increasing spread of forest pests and diseases. Milder winters no longer provide the natural control of insects and pathogenic fungi that previously helped maintain the balance of ecosystems. Trees, already weakened by water and heat stress, are therefore more vulnerable, increasing the risk of degradation and loss of forest cover.

“Forests are reacting to climate change, but they are doing so under pressure. And when an ecosystem is out of balance, it also loses its ability to adapt,” notes Riccardo Fraccaro, CEO of Carbon Planet.

An analysis by the Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change (CMCC) suggests that the composition of Italy’s woodlands is likely to undergo significant change. Species are gradually moving to higher altitudes in search of more favourable climatic conditions. In the northern and north-eastern areas of the Apennines, silver fir, European beech, hazel and oak may give way to species such as European larch and Turkey oak. A genuine “relocation” that alters ecological balances, reduces biodiversity and increases the vulnerability of Mediterranean ecosystems.

In this critical context, however, Italy faces a paradox. The country is becoming increasingly forested: today, around 38% of the territory is covered by woodland, much of which has grown on abandoned agricultural land. Nevertheless, this expansion does not necessarily correspond to an improvement in the state of ecosystems, as it is not accompanied by adequate management. Only 18% of forests are covered by a Forest Management Plan and just 10% are certified. That means most of the forest heritage is not actively managed. “We have more forests, but without management, the woods become a vulnerability, not a resource,” emphasises Fraccaro.

An unmanaged ecosystem is, indeed, more vulnerable to fires, diseases and hydrogeological instability. According to Legambiente, around 94,000 hectares of forest were destroyed in 2025 – twice as much compared to the previous year – with Sicily, Calabria and Puglia among the regions most affected. Managing forests means preventing fires, reducing risks, enhancing the health of ecosystems and generating value for local communities. In other words, it means transforming them from a passive element into active infrastructure.

“The real paradigm shift is this: not having to choose between conservation and use, but managing in order to conserve,” Fraccaro adds. New regulatory tools are also moving in this direction: the European CRCF Regulation and the guidelines of the Italian Forest Carbon Credit Registry, which introduce, for the first time, a structured regulatory framework. Sustainable forest management is recognised as an activity capable of generating certified credits, on the condition that it complies with rigorous criteria of transparency, additionality and permanence.

Credits, however, are not merely an environmental tool for quantifying CO2, they also represent a flow of financial resources into the local area, as they form part of companies’ decarbonisation pathways: after reducing their direct and indirect emissions as much as possible, companies use these tools to offset residual emissions, with the aim of achieving carbon neutrality at the company or product level.

“In the decarbonisation process, carbon credits do not replace emissions reductions: they complement them. They are a tool to accelerate the transition, not to avoid it,” explains Fraccaro. Thus, a virtuous cycle is created for forest management: businesses finance the transition by purchasing carbon credits, forest owners gain new revenue to manage their land, forests increase their capacity to absorb CO₂, and the system as a whole becomes more solid. “This is the true value of forest credits: not merely offsetting emissions, but enabling active and ongoing land management,” concludes Fraccaro.

Today, forested areas can no longer be viewed solely as natural spaces to be protected or as economic resources to be exploited. Rather, they are complex natural infrastructures that require vision, management and investment. And it is precisely in the ability to manage this complexity that the opportunity to turn a crisis into an opportunity lies.

Cover: photo by Envato