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Carbon credits are definitively shifting from being merely an accessory to corporate sustainability to becoming a structural component of industrial strategies, finance and climate policy. This is the scenario outlined in the 2026 Carbon Market Buyer’s Guide by South Pole, a globally recognised climate consulting firm, depicting a market that has entered a new phase, characterised by stricter regulations, growing focus on integrity and increasingly high expectations from investors and other corporate stakeholders.
“The guide builds on an obvious contradiction: while climate policy momentum is slowing in several countries, the tangible effects of global warming are turning into direct economic risks for businesses,” Alberto Lanzoni, South Pole’s commercial director for Southern Europe, explains to Renewable Matter. “According to South Pole’s latest Net Zero Report, nearly three-quarters of financial institutions expect the companies in their portfolios to have a carbon credit strategy, while over 70% consider businesses with credible pathways to net zero to be more solid and financeable. The Buyer’s Guide confirms this trend: high-integrity carbon credits bolster the credibility of transition and net-zero plans, enabling companies to manage residual emissions.”
The “reset” of integrity
In its guide, South Pole outlines four key areas that will shape the market in the coming years: integrity, demand, policy and prices. Compared to the past, it is integrity that marks the first major shift. “The quality of credits is becoming more standardised thanks to the work of organisations such as ICVCM, independent rating systems and increasing scrutiny from buyers. High integrity is now the minimum requirement for operating in the voluntary market,” continues Lanzoni.
While emission volumes are expected to decline due to increasingly rigorous standards and stricter requirements for project design, monitoring, reporting and verification, on the other hand, demand is set to grow rapidly. The IPCC estimates that by mid-century, between 5 and 16 gigatonnes of CO₂ removals per year will be required, a huge increase on current levels. The coming decade is described as a phase of rapid acceleration in removals, both nature-based and technological, with the voluntary market acting as an early-stage financing platform to support project development.
At the same time, the sector’s digitalisation is also gaining momentum. Digital monitoring, reporting and verification systems based on remote sensing, the Internet of Things (IoT) and digital twins are presented as tools that promise to improve project transparency and traceability by introducing continuous streams of verifiable data. For South Pole, this development could pave the way for increasingly automated markets and even tokenised credits.
Pricing, rules and risk management
The market is not the only thing changing; the regulatory framework is evolving too. “The SBTi Corporate Net-Zero V2.0 standard and the Ongoing Emissions Responsibility framework are pushing for a more structured use of credits to manage residual emissions, while the VCMI Claims Code establishes different tiers based on the proportion of residual emissions offset using high-quality carbon credits, in order to ensure greater transparency and integrity,” continues Lanzoni. At the same time, especially in Europe, the scope for generic environmental claims is narrowing: new regulations restrict the use of claims such as “carbon neutral” if based solely on offsetting and require greater clarity between internal reductions and emissions offset through credits. Internal reductions, a key point, are also emphasised by South Pole in its guide: “Credits do not replace internal decarbonisation, but rather remain a complementary tool, especially useful for tackling residual emissions that are difficult to reduce and for financing mitigation projects during the transition.”
This shift will inevitably have an impact on prices too. Following a period of decline, South Pole forecasts a return to growth: around $20 per tonne by 2030 and over $200 in 2050 for high-quality removals. “In a context where supply is likely to tighten due to stricter criteria and costs are rising, the guide recommends strategies to cover and mitigate these risks through multi-year purchase contracts, forward purchases and off-take agreements to build a diversified and resilient portfolio in the long term,” concludes Alberto Lanzoni.
More than a simple operational manual, the 2026 Carbon Market Buyer’s Guide thus marks a turning point: a market created to address the limitations of climate policy is now being regulated, digitised and financialised. The real challenge lies in determining whether this new phase of the carbon markets will succeed in establishing shared standards of quality and transparency, credibly supporting companies’ decarbonisation targets and the growth of CO₂ removal solutions.
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Cover: photo by Envato