The year 2026 is shaping up to be a year of transition, in which major economic shifts will enter a harsher and less ideological phase. Between technology, climate, raw materials and finance, the systemic tensions that have emerged in recent years are starting to show tangible effects on markets and public policy.
These are no longer announcements or distant targets, but choices that reshape industrial, geopolitical and social balances. From energy-intensive artificial intelligence to the security of critical resources, from the crisis of climate negotiations to the centrality of biodiversity. In the background, the resurgence of fossil fuels, the limitations of private insurance and the need to adapt. Seven different but interconnected stories. Seven keys to understanding where the global economy is going.
The AI bubble
Will the financial bubble generated by artificial intelligence pop? For players such as Federal, banks such as JP Morgan Chase, but also the biggies of the Magnificent 7 Stocks, such as Amazon, we are gearing up for a possible shake-up. Will it be a benign bubble, destined to wipe out small and medium-sized businesses that have rushed to ride the AI wave? Or will it be a new 2008, forcing Trump to bail out Big Tech companies with unpredictable consequences even on the huge investments in semiconductors and energy that could slow down the global market?
Even if the AI bubble does not burst, global electricity production to power data centres is expected to increase from 460 TWh in 2024 to over 1 000 TWh in 2030 and 1 300 TWh in 2035. Over the next five years, renewables will supply almost half of the additional demand, followed by natural gas and coal, while nuclear power will begin to play an increasingly important role towards the end of this decade and beyond. Undoubtedly one of the hottest topics in 2026.
The race for critical raw materials
The China-US-EU challenge is now entering its hottest phase. And the European Commission has accelerated by launching RESourceEU, an action plan based on the Critical Raw Material Act, to deliver structural funding, conduct in-depth market monitoring, strengthen the circular economy of CRMs and establish risk mitigation tools, for instance by strengthening strategic reserves.
But the 3 billion handled pales in comparison to the US effort with the Export-Import Bank of the United States (EXIM Bank) and the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC), which will commit tens of billions of dollars to the race for critical raw materials. And on rare earths, China is certainly not willing to give ground, considering its undisputed supremacy in the magnet segment, while investing in recycling, recovery and advanced extraction technologies. A topic that our team of journalists will follow from three continents.
Towards COP31
The failure of COP30 has plunged negotiators, scientists, activists and citizens into discouragement. How can we designate a path for transitioning away from fossil fuels? Will the world from now on be divided between petrostates, led by Trump's USA, bin Salman's Saudi Arabia and Putin's Russia, and the ambitious who want to try to draw a roadmap for the phase down of coal, oil and gas?
COP31 in Turkey will offer a moment of out-of-the-box reflection, to begin to envision which new elements can contribute to the success of the Paris Agreement, from the very reform of the negotiation process, long overdue and made all the more urgent by the collapse of the Belém negotiations. A negotiation under the radar and out of the global media spotlight to find a new path of environmental diplomacy.
To find out whether there will be new diplomatic alliances (an EU bloc, CELAC, China?), it will not be enough to travel to Santa Marta in Colombia on 28-29 April for the first Just Transition Away from Fossil Fuels international conference. But neither will it be at the US G20 in Miami in November. May Davos be a propitious moment?
The Circular Economy Act is coming
This is the trending topic for European insiders (but will surely also be of interest to countries in Asia and beyond). The goal is to increase the circularity of the EU economy and create a single market for secondary raw materials.
Secondary raw material costs remain high and in some cases (plastics) not competitive with virgin raw materials. But an extra effort will have to be made to work on true circularity of consumer products: choice of materials, ecodesign, empowerment of consumers and public purchasers, new business models and market enhancement through EPR. Only in this way will it be possible to ensure a domestic materials market that is more sustainable and resilient to external supply shocks, working towards a true circular economy Made in Europe.
Mainstream biodiversity
In October 2026, COP17 Biodiversity will take place in Yerevan, Armenia. The first collective global review of the status of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (the global framework adopted in 2022 with the goal of halting and reversing biodiversity loss by 2030) will be under debate.
No exciting news is expected. But it is an opportunity to support the rehabilitation of degraded ecosystems and the protection of at least 30% of land and water, engaging the private sector of the bio-economy (agriculture and livestock, forestry, cosmetic-pharmaceutical) and raw material extraction.
The protection of natural capital is crucial for the economy and some are beginning to realise this. We need to create media momentum around the Armenian negotiations, exploiting the impasse in the climate negotiations.
Fossils, a sudden high
Will oil and gas stocks continue to rise in 2026? The past year has seen prices fall significantly, especially for crude oil, which fell by almost 20%, dropping below $60 per barrel due to fears of a significant oversupply. The main contributors to the fall in prices were production increases by the US, Brazil and Canada, while the OPEC+ group eased its production squeeze of the past few years as it competed with the US mainland bloc.
According to the IEA, an increase of 3.85 million barrels per day is to be expected for oil, while the US will significantly increase its natural gas exports (to the EU), literally flooding the market and lowering prices. But let's not expect a reduction in Capex by Big Oil in the medium term: exploration by giants like Chevron and Total, driven by the full support of the White House, is set to increase significantly despite low prices. The age of fossil fuels is far from over, unfortunately.
Insurance, adaptation and environmental risk
In 2026, a spotlight will have to be turned on the insurance sector, which alone cannot carry the full weight of the destructive effects of natural catastrophes. The insurance world is looking more and more closely at sustainable finance and the introduction of the compulsory CAT NAT policy for companies, to transfer the risk from the state to private individuals (in Italy, it is compulsory for SMEs from 1 January). Climate and environmental adaptation of companies and organisations will become a crucial element in reducing insurance premiums, pending a European taxonomy on the subject.
Cover: Envato image