This article is also available in Italian / Questo articolo è disponibile anche in italiano
A clear and unmistakable downturn. The once sharply rising line on the graph comes to a sudden halt, as if it has collided with a wall, then flattens before beginning a gentle descent. Forgive the poetic licence, but this is a historic moment: CO₂ emissions in China, the world’s largest emitter, have started to fall.
This is clearly shown by a study by Lauri Myllyvirta, analyst and co-founder of the Finnish think tank CREA (Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air), published on the 15th of May by Carbon Brief. According to the study, China’s emissions fell by 1.6% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, and by 1% over the past 12 months.
In reality, climate-changing emissions from the Chinese economy had already been falling (there was a drastic decline, for example, as a backlash from Covid), but this is the first time they have declined despite production growth and increased energy demand. All credit goes to the exceptional development of renewable energy.
Although it is still too early to talk about a “peak”, the signs are encouraging. If the trend proves consistent, China will be able to say that it has reached peak emissions well ahead of the 2030 forecast, which will greatly benefit global climate action.
China: emissions fall, energy demand rises
As mentioned, this isn’t the first time Chinese emissions have declined. The difference is that previous drops were linked to periods of economic crisis: in 2020 due to the pandemic, and in 2022 because of Covid-related setbacks.
This time, however, the long-anticipated slowdown appears to be structural. “Electricity supply from new wind, solar, and nuclear capacity,” writes Myllyvirta, “was enough to cut coal-power output even as demand surged. The analysis, based on official figures and commercial data, shows that China’s CO2 emissions have now been stable, or falling, for more than a year.”
Another factor contributing significantly to the emissions drop is the decline in demand for cement and steel, in this case, the result of a protracted crisis in the real estate sector, which has slowed construction growth in the People’s Republic for several years.
Lastly, but no less importantly, there is the boom in electric vehicles, which has literally cut oil demand.
When will the peak arrive?
The question is now a legitimate one: has China already reached its emissions peak, or not? Analysts at CREA have for some time claimed that the peak should come in 2025, despite the Chinese government and official sources in the People’s Republic having always cautiously stuck to the target of 2030.
The trend over the past year is certainly encouraging, but as Myllyvirta notes, there are a number of factors that could cause a new spike in the CO₂ curve.
One of the most immediate is the summer heat: surging demand for air conditioning may force China to fall back on fossil fuels for backup power, and droughts, as already happened in 2023, could drastically reduce the hydroelectric power supply.
Then, of course, there’s the issue of tariffs and the trade war with the United States, which makes forecasting China’s economic trajectory all the more complex. During this current 90-day truce, the People's Republic could decide to push manufacturing production to recover, thereby increasing emissions.
In any case, the final word will belong to the next Five-Year Plan, which will be published in 2026: it will set out the growth targets for renewables and the emission reduction targets for 2030. Only then will we know whether the decline we are seeing today can finally be called a peak.
Cover: foto di Zhang Kaiyv, Unsplash