The summer of 2026 saw extreme heatwaves and prolonged droughts that affected the European continent on several occasions. According to Copernicus, by the end of the summer, 52% of Europe had experienced what was classified as “very strong” heat stress, associated with perceived temperatures of 38°C or above. Heat and drought also affected Europe's rivers, which recorded their lowest flows in more than 30 years during the summer, the hottest on record.
Heatwaves claimed tens of thousands of lives and had severe consequences on people’s health. Extreme temperatures also placed agriculture and various industrial activities under considerable strain. As the effects of extreme heat become increasingly apparent, climate models are helping scientists understand how these phenomena might evolve in the coming years and which parts of Europe are likely to be hardest hit.
These issues were discussed at an online conference focused on the summer of 2026, climate model projections and the role of climate information in local decision-making, which was also attended by Renewable Matter. The event was organised by EXPECT and Impetus4Change (I4C), two research projects funded by the EU's Horizon programme. The first works to improve understanding and forecasting of climate change at the regional level, while the second translates the latest findings in climate science into actionable climate information used at the local level, where climate adaptation measures are put into practice.
“All signs point towards events like the summer of 2026 becoming more frequent in the coming years,” explained Stefan Sobolowski, Impetus4Change project lead, Research Professor at NORCE and Research leader at Bjerknes Center for Climate Research. “And based on our current understanding any estimates of ‘how frequent’ are very likely on the low side.”
Europe keeps warming
Over recent decades, Europe has been the fastest-warming continent, with average temperatures rising by 0.56°C per decade. Only the Arctic has warmed faster, at a rate of 0.75°C per decade. Over the same period, the global average temperature rose by 0.27°C. The continent's warming is driven by greenhouse gas emissions, as well as by regional processes that amplify this effect. The rapid rise in summer temperatures is linked to large-scale changes in atmospheric circulation, influenced by several factors, including oceanic teleconnections and the melting of Greenland's ice sheet.
While climate models can produce relatively accurate projections at the global level, the picture becomes more complex at the regional scale. As Markus Donat, EXPECT project lead, ICREA Research Professor and Group Leader at Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC) explains, “Our research shows that large-scale changes in weather patterns play an important role in regionally amplifying summer warming in Europe. Current climate models underestimate these regional changes compared to observations. This means that these models likely also give conservative estimates of future warming in the coming years, and we should expect – and prepare for – even hotter summers in Europe than currently predicted.”
Taken together, these findings suggest that Europe will have to contend with increasingly frequent heatwaves and extreme weather events in the coming years. The consequences will be felt not only in human health but also across a European economy that is already struggling. The prospect of further loss of life and the economic costs required to address the damage caused by extreme weather events over the coming decades raises questions not only about the importance of mitigation, but also – given the continent’s rapid warming – about the need to invest in adaptation. Cutting emissions remains essential, but it will be equally important to prepare cities, infrastructure and regions for climatic conditions that are now, at least in part, unavoidable.
As a recent UNEP report also pointed out, the response to the climate crisis must bring mitigation and adaptation together, prioritising measures that advance both objectives: making communities and territories more resilient while reducing emissions of CO₂ and other greenhouse gases.
The Barcelona example
Although some elements of uncertainty remain, climate forecasts for specific geographical areas are essential for guiding decisions on adaptation at a local level. Making this information accessible helps public authorities prepare in advance, rather than acting only when the effects of the climate crisis become apparent, and implement measures to mitigate the most serious consequences.
The city of Barcelona offers one example. There, sub-seasonal forecast bulletins are used by municipal authorities to prepare for periods of intense heat. Information about expected conditions over the following weeks helps the city organise climate shelters, manage sport activities and introduce targeted measures to protect the most vulnerable communities. In this way, climate forecasts become a practical tool for anticipating the effects of extreme heat, rather than simply describing them after the event.
Cover: Rome, August 2026, photo by Vincenzo Landi/MDPhoto, Agenzia IPA